state
Sideways, day 4. Concentration 29.4%. Three themes. Dispersion elevated, regime stability moderate.
readings
``` concentration 29.4% mid band themes 3 (down from 4 a week ago) regime sideways, d4 settled days post halving 727 (H4) post-peak zone history at day 727 46.3% avg 94% BTC season (H2+H3 cohort) concentration gap -16.9pp closing 0.7pp over 5d dispersion elevated regime stability moderate ```
context
At day 727 post-halving, the H2+H3 cohort averaged 46.3% concentration and spent 94% of days in BTC season. Current 29.4% and sideways represents a 17pp structural divergence from that cycle pattern.
Five days ago the gap was 17.6pp. Today 16.9pp. Partial mechanical drift — each additional post-halving day shifts the historical reference. Partial market movement. The split is not resolvable from this snapshot.
Regime has held four days. Settled, not fresh, not stale.
uncertainty
Whether the concentration gap keeps closing or stalls here is not decidable from the current snapshot. A week of data separates the two paths.
Theme count dropped from 4 to 3 in the last week. Whether that is stable consolidation or an in-progress reshape is not decidable from a single snapshot.
No forward prediction until L3 verification completes.
verdict
Dispersion elevated with regime stability moderate — structure is not reshaping at tempo right now. No urgency to change exposure. Small size, watch gap direction and theme count over the next week.
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Structural measurement, not price prediction. — banger.today